to take the delayed effect of balance sheet reduction conducted earlier into its consideration of rate cuts. The current phase-out of balanc
上海会所e sheet reduction already has some easing effect, and only after the balance sheet reduction ends in September, can its impact become clearer.
By incorporating that impact into consideration, the Fed can draw up a better rate cut plan that maximizes effects of the policy mix.上海会所
Thirdly, the market may have overestimated how much the Fed will cut the rates. There may be no more than three rate cuts by the end of 2020.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard – the major advocate of this
round of rate cut – has suggested the use of the modern-day Taylor rule, which fairly well explains th上海会所
e Fed’s interest rate decisions. Even based on this model adopted by dovish Fed officials, we found that the degree of rate cuts may be weaker than m
上海会所arket expectation for quite some time going forward: at most one cut by the end of this year and likely two or three cuts by the end of 2020.
By contrast, before the June FOMC meeting, the market expected a higher-than-85-percent chance of more than one rate cut by the
end of this year as well as an about 60-percent chance of more than three cuts by the end of 2020, according to Bloomberg data.上海会所品茶微信
In conclusion, we think as economic downside pressure gradually emerges, the Fed will have to kick off the rate cut cycle. But the rate cut si上海会所品茶微信
gnal, timing and degree may not measure up to the market expectation. Therefore, two future developments appear possible:
First, investor sentiment can reverse drastically if the Fed’s action fails to meet market expec上海会所品茶微信
tation. Considering the market has fully priced in the unrealistic expectation of rate cuts sinc
e early June, any reversal of expectation can lead to short-term fluctuations of key price signals such as the US Treasury yield cu
rve, the US Dollar Index, and the gold price, which may pose extensive spillover shocks to asset portfolios.
Second, the long-term trend of rate cuts will continue even if the market expectation reverses. In the long
run, the Fed is expected to proceed with rate cuts in a fairly slow and smooth way. This will enlarge the monetary policy room of ot
her major economies and expedite the shift toward an easing global monetary environment, which may in turn lift the sen
timent of global stock markets and ease any currency risk of emerging markets gradually.
Cheng Shi is the managing director, head of research and chief economist of ICBC Interna
tional Holdings Ltd.Qian Zhijun is a senior economist of ICBC International Holdings Ltd.
US markets rallied and closed in positive territory Monday on news that Chinese President Xi Ji
上海419论坛nping and his US counterpart Donald Trump will resume negotiations to resolve the ongoing trade dispute.
Trump said talks are “back on track” and held off on his threat to impose tariffs on an additional $300 billion of Chinese goods. Trump 上海419论坛
said China will buy “a tremendous amount” of US food and agriculture exports while bilateral negotiations are ongoing.
The S&P 500 reached 2,977.86 in midday trading, all all-time high, bef
ore closing at 2964.33, up 22.57 points. Nevertheless, the long-term outlook for the market rema 上海419论坛
ins unclear as US manufacturing dipped close to a three-year low in June amid a worldwide economic slowdown.
“The devil is always in the details,” Usha Haley, professor of manageme
nt at Wichita State University, told China Daily. “I don’t know if Trump is the great m
上海419论坛品茶微信ediator. But everyone gave a huge sigh of relief that talks have resumed between the US and China.”
Trump eased export sanctions on Huawei Technologies Co Ltd, boosting semiconductor stocks, including Micron Tech
nology, Skyworks Solutions, Qualcomm and Broadcom — and sparking the possibility of a revolt among some Republicans.
South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, a strong Trump supporter, told NBC’s Face the Nation on Sund 上海419论坛品茶微信
ay that he’s reviewing Trump’s action and noted, “It’s clearly a concession. There’ll be a lot of pu
shback if this is a major concession. If it’s a minor concession, I think it’s part of the overall deal.”
Neither side sai 上海419论坛品茶微信d when negotiations would resume or established a schedule for completing a deal.
Goldman Sachs called Trump’s decision to ease export sanctions on Huawei a “potential unexpected market friendly outcome”。
Asked at the G20 meeting in Japan if he had removed Huawei from the Entity List that controls the export of technology th
at could compromise US national security, Trump said, “No, not at all” and “We are talking about that” before telling re
porters, “I don’t want to talk about it now, we are looking at it very carefully. Huawei is very much in play.”
n our cities, whe上海千花坊品茶微信re more than half the world’s population now lives and 70 percent of GDP is cre
ated, to ensure they are places where we can live, breathe, move safely and be productive,” Stern said.
The G20 nations must lead by example on this imperative, Stern said, and especially the world’s two biggest economies, the US and China.
“China is demonstrating leadership through its significant investments in zero-carbon energy, particularly rene
wable power,” he said. “China’s support for solar power has directly contributed to the astonishingly rapid fall in
he production costs of panel units, making it now the cheapest source of electricity in many parts of the world.”
Stern also noted that China can provide even greater leadership through the Belt and Road Initiative if it e
ncourages the application of robust sustainability tests to investments in new infrastructure in partner countries.
ow is the focus上海419论坛品茶微信 for Van Gogh: The Immersive Experience, an ong
oing exhibition at the National Museum of China that runs through Sept 22. Techn
icians have used cutting-edge technology to bring to life the work of the gifted artist through an all-encompassing pr
ojection display of images taken from more than 200 paintings and drawings from the artist’s oeuvre.
The 35-minute show is being staged inside a purpose-built rectangular box occ
upying a section of the spacious third-floor corridor of the National Museum of China.
The viewer first encounters Van Gogh through a space set out like a galler
y, in which the painter’s self-portraits are displayed on wall-mounted screens. Then the gal
lery changes into different scenes inspired by Van Gogh’s iconic works, where viewers “step inside” these fam
iliar landscapes. One moment, viewers are surrounded by blossoming almond trees, while the next, they watch cr
ows flying over expansive wheat fields. Overhead, a dreamy, starlit night sky unfolds.
In recent years, Van Gogh has been the subject of many popular interactive exhibitions at home and abroad, where digital t
echnology rather than the original paintings are used to offer an insight into the painter’s life and art.
allowed 94 stu上海乌托邦品茶微信dents into the tent and accommodated the rest at a home for the elderly in the town.
Music, fine arts and composition classes were given in the tent classroom.
In the music class, Zeng Yingtian taught the students how to sing As Resilient as Bamboo.
Written by a high school teacher in Changning, the song said quake-affected people would
not cry, even if they shed tears, as they were uncrushed bamboo and green hope would arise from the debris.
In the fine arts and composition classes, students were told to draw pictures of people involved in earthquake relief and write w
ords of gratitude. Some of the students sent their drawings to policemen and people in charge of quarantine.
Since the earthquake, the Changning quake zone has received donations of more than 100 million yuan from companies and individuals.
Construction on 上海千花网女神会所the buildings at Tesla’s Shanghai plant has almost completed and the production equ
ipment is being prepared for installation, the auto news website Eelectrek reported on Sunday.
However, a representative at Tesla’s China branch said the plant is not yet finished, and these details are the same as th
e news released at the Tesla shareholders’ meeting, according to National Business Daily.
With an investment of over 50 billion yuan ($7.22 billion), the Shanghai plant, or Gigafactory 3, is the co
mpany’s first manufacturing facility outside the US and the first wholly foreign-funded automotive production project in China.
China is the world’s largest new energy automobile market, so
having manufacturing capacity in the country will help Tesla avoid increasingly unce
rtain import tariffs because of the trade tension between China and the US, said the new website.
ount is to effect上海品茶微信女神会所ively use international resources, improve Chinese enter－prises’ co
mpetitiveness in the global markets, adjust its economic structure and change its economic d
evelopment model from quantitative growth to innovation-led qualitative development.
Supply-side structural reform key to progress
China should also deepen its financial system reform and accelerate the opening up of its capital account, because only
by deepening the financial sector’s supply-side structural reform can it improve its financial services en
vironment, meet the financing needs of its real economy, and become a leader in the global financial sector.
Since the yuan’s internationalization is an irreversible trend, China should take meas
ures to make the yuan a major international currency, expand its international influence. On the
Foot on pedal, 10-y上海龙凤女神会所ar-old Murtaja Qureiris is about to lead the group of a
round 30 children. In video footage obtained by CNN, he is wearing rolled up denim jean
s and black flip-flops on his feet, and grinning at the camera recor
ding the event. It may look like a regular bike ride, but the group is staging a protest.
Moments after they set off, Qureiris gets lost in the sea of boys, strug
gling to keep up as he lifts a megaphone and presses it against his lips. “The people demand human rights!” he shouts.
As a boy, Qureiris participated in demonstrations like this bike
ride, expressions of dissent in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province during the 2011 Arab Spring.
The People’s Liberation Army will adamantly support regional and world peace, but will not be
“bullied or preyed upon” by foreign powers into giving up national sovereignty and legitimate int
erests, State Councilor and Defense Minister General Wei Fenghe said on Sunday in Singapore.
Experts said Wei’s speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue, a key defense summ
it, marked a milestone in Chinese military diplomacy as Wei showcased the PLA’s confide
nce, positions on key issues and its sincerity and willingness to exchange and cooperate with other countries.
It is the first time in eight years that a Chinese defense minister has participated in the event.
Building a community with a shared future for mankind is the right path forward an
d the trend of the times amid growing uncertainty and instability around the world, he said.
ning movies related to the countryside and contributed by guest authors, the region’s local literary legacy can both be re-examined and extended.